Friday, January 21, 2011

An end to cheap fuel in the US>

Pundits here are beginning to acknowledge what quite possibly may be the end of the cheap gasoline era. Predictions are between $4 and $6 dollars a gallon with the prospect of an increase in the federal gasoline tax. One commentator mirrored my take on the subject which is that the US simply must extract itself from our addiction to oil; foreign oil.

Doing so, however, is tantamount to political suicide, but I do think that O has already taken that decision. If this proves to be correct, we will be entering a new era and the prevailing paradigms will be shifting like the desert sands.

Oddly, there remains enough oil and allied fossil fuel products to power world industry for some time to come. This is in spite of rising demand and rising demand is clearly Chinese driven. We in the US have 750 cars on the road per 1,000 people. China has 10. China also has a bourgeoning middle class complete with a lust for luxuries including motor cars.

What with soaring Chinese demand and world oil largely in Arab hands, the problem with fossil fuels is as much political as economic. As one commentator put it, the stone age did not end because it ran out of rocks. Indeed, other vicissitudes intervened to a point where necessity mothered invention.

We are now counting on that process to kick in and if it does not, everyone will be in trouble. The name of the game is alternative energy and I am certain that China will play a commanding role in its research, development and manufacture.



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