Friday, February 17, 2012

The piss-poor POTUS primaries.......

Romney is still in the lead, but by the skin of his teeth. As I predicted earlier, Santorum has begun picking up support from conservatives who previously favored Gingrich. It took longer than I expected for this to happen. The reason for the changeover is that conservative voters are beginning to understand that Newt is not all that conservative and that he carriers far too much controversial baggage. All in all, the GOP should be ashamed of itself for not being able to field a charismatic, popular and winning candidate.

Analysts are beginning to suggest that we may have a brokered GOP nominating convention. This happened last in 1948. It occurs when no clear winner emerges and allows the party to field its preferred candidate from among the existing contenders or from outside. One reason for the poor showing is that popular, effective and electable Republican politicians don't want the job. Life on the election trail is excruciating and takes its toll on everyone involved including the media. It is also risky both personally and politically. Just now far too many negative facts are being exposed for all the candidates. At the end of the day I would be surprised if any one of them would be elected.

Recently, Gingrich's people called on Santorum to pull out of the race so that the latter's following could go to Newt's camp. The opposite is now happening. There are appeals for Newt to drop out. He will not. More importantly, the combined support of Gingrich and Santorum would come close to rivaling Romney's support. As long as far right votes are divided between Gingrich and Santorum, Romney is safe. It is now being forecast that everything will come to a head on Super Tuesday.

ISuper Tuesday is the date on which the largest number of states hold their primary election. Tuesday is only significant insofar as it is America's normal voting day. This year, 10 states will hold their primaries on Tuesday, March 6th. As many as 24 states participated in previous Super Tuesdays. States do have the right to change their primary election dates, hence the variation.

The major irony in the 2012 campaign in my view is that Romney needs to be far to the right in order to win the Republican nomination but needs to be a moderate conservative in order to beat Obama. It would be difficult for an ultra conservative or any person on the far right to win a presidential election given demographic preferences.  Just now, Romney is exposing his ultra conservative credentials every chance he gets. He is desperate to win the nomination and will go to extremes to do so. In fact, he is a moderate conservative judging from his stand on abortion, gay rights, medicare and similar benchmark issues distinguishing conservatives from liberals. The problem is he has to lie, spin, contort and otherwise torture the facts in order to win the nomination. The question is, will he continue such behavior should he become president?  

More importantly, why does our electoral system force people to lie in order to win their party's nomination?


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