Romney is still in the
lead, but by the skin of his teeth. As I predicted earlier, Santorum has begun
picking up support from conservatives who previously favored Gingrich. It took
longer than I expected for this to happen. The reason for the changeover is
that conservative voters are beginning to understand that Newt is not all that
conservative and that he carriers far too much controversial baggage. All in
all, the GOP should be ashamed of itself for not being able to field a
charismatic, popular and winning candidate.
Analysts are beginning
to suggest that we may have a brokered GOP nominating convention. This happened
last in 1948. It occurs when no clear winner emerges and allows the party to
field its preferred candidate from among the existing contenders or from
outside. One reason for the poor showing is that popular, effective and electable
Republican politicians don't want the job. Life on the election trail is
excruciating and takes its toll on everyone involved including the media. It is
also risky both personally and politically. Just now far too many negative
facts are being exposed for all the candidates. At the end of the day I would
be surprised if any one of them would be elected.
Recently, Gingrich's
people called on Santorum to pull out of the race so that the latter's
following could go to Newt's camp. The opposite is now happening. There are
appeals for Newt to drop out. He will not. More importantly, the combined
support of Gingrich and Santorum would come close to rivaling Romney's support.
As long as far right votes are divided between Gingrich and Santorum, Romney is
safe. It is now being forecast that everything will come to a head on
Super Tuesday.
ISuper Tuesday is the
date on which the largest number of states hold their primary
election. Tuesday is only significant insofar as it is America's normal voting
day. This year, 10 states will hold their primaries on Tuesday, March 6th. As
many as 24 states participated in previous Super Tuesdays. States do have the
right to change their primary election dates, hence the variation.
The major irony in the
2012 campaign in my view is that Romney needs to be far to the right in order
to win the Republican nomination but needs to be a moderate conservative in
order to beat Obama. It would be difficult for an ultra conservative or any
person on the far right to win a presidential election given demographic
preferences. Just now, Romney is exposing his ultra conservative
credentials every chance he gets. He is desperate to win the nomination and
will go to extremes to do so. In fact, he is a moderate conservative judging
from his stand on abortion, gay rights, medicare and similar benchmark issues
distinguishing conservatives from liberals. The problem is he has to lie, spin,
contort and otherwise torture the facts in order to win the nomination. The
question is, will he continue such behavior should he become president?
More importantly, why does our electoral
system force people to lie in order to win their party's nomination?
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