Was
it only on 27th October that I wrote about the EU being back on the
political front-page after being verboten for years as a topic for polite
conversation?
Well,
it was back with a vengeance last night when Cameron got hammered over the EU
budget vote.
So
what’s it all about?
For
starters, it’s about €3 trillion (that’s right – trillion). That’s the size of
the7-year budget proposal. The cost to the UK is £144 for every man, woman and
child. Of this no less than 40% is spent on agriculture, the lion’s share going
to wealthy agro-business, rather than to small farmers.
Winners
include Poland, Hungary, the Baltic states, and the East Europeans. Losers are
Germany, France, the UK and Italy. Italy in particular is between a rock and a hard
place, since its economy and public finances are dire at a time when it could
be facing a very large increase in its contribution.
The
European Parliament is another player in this trillion euro poker game.
It
wants more of its ‘own’ money to spend, independent of member states. It says
that it will veto the whole budget if it doesn’t get its own way. But the
reality is that they wouldn’t have the bottle – they are not overly-popular as
it is.
Then
there is the European Commission wanting its own large slice of the pie. Its
proposal stacks up to €1091 billion, an inflation-busting 6%.
If
Dave gets the ‘freeze’ he wants the UK contribution could actually rise by €2.4
billion over the 7-year budget period.
If
the budget is vetoed, the existing budget would be carried over, plus 2% inflation allowance. The next step could
be to present a completely new budget, and under the EU’s arcane procedures
this could be carried by a majority vote.
So
Dave’s veto would be ineffective. Actually, not quite. Getting a new budget
through would take forever and a day. They would have to decide no less than 55
separate spending areas. The new member states could lose out badly, as the
current budget proposals would give them proportionately more money.
Expect
this story to run and run.
Meanwhile
we must sit back and enjoy watching the whole politically and financially unsustainable
monster tear itself apart.
As
Confucius said ‘ few things are more agreeable than seeing your neighbour fall
off his roof’.
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