Dave, Nigel & the UKIP two-step!

When I read a major feature article about Nigel Farrage in the NYT of all places, syndicated to the Bangkok post, I know that he and UKIP have arrived with a vengeance.

 

I suspect that the main-line media have under-reported him, wishing that he would simply go away.

 

It’s not that he never says anything newsworthy. On the contrary, he knows how to put a bit of stick about.

 

He once told Van Rumpey, the colourless President of the EC, ‘ I said you would be the quiet assassin of nation-state democracy, and in your dull and technocratic way you have gone about your course’.

 

And that he had the charisma of a damp rag and the appearance of a bank clerk, for which sin, as I recall, he received a large fine.

 

His is a ‘damn the technocrats’ theme, which is pretty convincing in these days when Greece, Portugal and Ireland are dancing to the tune of officials from the IMF and the ECB, when Italy has a former EU Commissioner as its unelected Prime Minister, and when largely ineffectual politicians in France, Spain and the UK are completely failing to connect with their angry and austerity-weary voters.

 

He warns that the dissonance between  EU bosses and the people can result in ‘desperate people doing desperate things’ citing the rise of neo-Fascist parties in many parts of Europe.

 

There is no doubting that UKIP is becoming a rising force in British and European politics.

 

It came second in the last EU elections and may well come top next time around. Its share of the vote now, according to the latest polls, has risen from 3% at the last General Election to 13%, putting them in third place, ahead of the Lib-Dems. It humiliated both Tories and Lib-Dems in the Corby by-election.

 

It has the unique advantage of stating clearly what it stands for, unlike all the other parties whose principles remain a mystery.

 

I don’t agree with their ‘total withdrawal’ policy, but I would certainly support a  reversion to the Single Market, and scrub everything thereafter.

 

I wholeheartedly support their ‘flat tax’ proposal that overnight would get rid of thousands of HMRC drones plus the armies of lawyers and accountants whose sole purpose in life is tax avoidance for the wealthy, and greatly reduce the budget deficit accordingly.

 

And how could any reasonable person object to their entirely sensible immigration policy of refusing permanent residence to any immigrant until he has worked here for 5 years (and paid taxes), and of granting work permits on a quota system for those who would benefit the economy, easily compiled from job vacancy statistics, instead of the present crazy system of cracking down on student visas and damaging the finances of our Universities? Or of restricting immigrants on the basis of salary rather than the economic needs of the country?

 

It keeps hammering away at the cost and waste of the whole rotten edifice of the EU.  The leading economist, Tim Congdon, is a party member. Last year the UK paid $16 billion to the EU, but he calculates that when the cost of regulation, waste and misallocation of resources are taken into account, the true annual cost is $238 billion, 10% of our GDP.

 

Then there is the ludicrous European Parliament. Its massive HQ in Frankfurt is used only two days a month, and yet $250 million a year is spent carting 754 members plus several thousand support staff and lobbyists to the city every month.

 

So where does all this leave Dave?

 

As a one-term wonder unless he comes to an accommodation with Nigel.

 

Most of the UKIP support will come from disillusioned Tories. If Dave doesn’t do a deal we can look forward to years of Labour, because UKIP will be a ‘spoiler’ in  Tory marginals.

 

As for Nigel, he talks a good fight but is he a tactician?

 

First up, he must not spread his resources too thinly by contesting unwinnable seats. He should target marginals, especially those held by Lib-Dems with Labour second, but I am uncertain about the arithmetic when it comes to Labour marginals where the Lib-Dems came second. But we can predict on the poll figures that the Lib-Dems will probably revert to their historical strength of around five MPs.

 

There is one reasonable certainty in all this. The tectonic plates of politics are not merely shifting.

 

They are coming apart.