What next, Dave?

Well, Dave has shot my fox.

 

I had intended to upbraid him for ignoring repeal of  the Human Rights Act. Now it has appeared high on the menu, and it is clear that he means business because he has appointed a pit-bull in Michael Gove to lead on this.

 

It will pave the way for rejecting the jurisdiction of the ECHR so that final legal jurisdiction will be restored to British courts.

 

The Tories election promises will demand £25 billion new spending. Where is Osborne to find this money in a climate of austerity? He could deduct a sizeable tranche from the Foreign Aid budget, now standing at nearly £12 billion. The Government foolishly legislated to commit 0.7% of GDP which means that the budget will rise by £1 billion. And yet DFID is awash with money and is reduced to parking some of it with the World Bank because it can’t spend it. (At the same time George could make economies by abolishing DFID and returning its functions to the F&CO).

 

Defence has not been mentioned. Cameron exhorted all NATO members to spend at least 2% of GDP on their military budget. Will he commit to the same for the UK? If so, the money available will increase as GDP grows. Don’t hold your breath!

 

Foreign policy was totally ignored by all parties during the whole campaign. Yet Britain desperately needs a higher international profile.

 

In  particular it  is difficult to understand why so much diplomatic and political heft has been dedicated to the Ukraine. This is a country that is irremediably corrupt, that produces little that we want to buy, has no strategic significance for us, and has no more relevance to Western especially British interests than Ulan Bator.

 

The West should be reviewing the extent to which   their interests coincide rather than conflict with Russia’s. This is not difficult. We both face the biggest threat to our security since the Cold War. The danger to Russia through Islamic terrorism is at least equal to that in the West. Large numbers of Chechnyan’s are fighting with ISIS. It is entirely possible that the bloody war in Chechnya is about to re-ignite, bringing terrorist attacks to Russia’s main cities. Apart from security considerations, the West, especially Germany, has vast manufacturing and energy investments in Russia. We should be fostering all this, not trying to damage our own interests by futile sanctions.

 

The Tories ae likely to get an unanticipated honeymoon period; possibly for the first time ever none of the opposition Parties has a leader in the Commons. The legislative programme must be pushed through as early in the new administration as possible.  The notional majority is 15, but this may start to evaporate with by-elections.

 

The SNP is the Millwall FC of politics. Everybody hates them but they don’t care! They appear to believe that they are going to call the shots in the Commons. This is almost certainly wishful thinking. They are mostly devoid of real political experience. They will be up against hardened professionals. They are in for a torrid time. And their party leader is not even in Parliament, so Wee Eck  will be taking his orders from Edinburgh.

 

Labour will have a serious morale problem for some time to come, but there are some heavyweight contenders for the leadership. Andy Burnham, the bookies’ favourite is also the Unions favourite. Yvette Cooper could be a real threat – attractive, well-spoken, very able and experienced. Umunna would suit Cameron as his election would show that Labour was still wedded to its trendy-lefty metropolitan Guardian-reading core that has nothing in common with ‘hard-working people’  oop North.

 

The real danger to Cameron, Dan Jarvis, has ruled himself out. Dave would have found that an Opposition leader who had killed real people was a tougher proposition than Red Ed.

 

Fasten your seat-belts; you are in for a  bumpy ride!