Never let a crisis go to waste.......

The dilemma of the month is what to do with Egypt. The country's situation is like a Rorschach test for diplomats and political pundits the world over. Everyone has an opinion forged from their own view of the situation and each is a bit different. I am learning all sorts of things about Egyptian politics that I did not know or had forgotten. Farheed Zacharia has been helpful in clarifying things, and so has the world press. Mubarak was so smooth and entrenched that I forgot he was but a cog in the military regime that actually calls the plays. I do believe, however, that many observers had also neglected this important point owing to how swimmingly relations between Egypt and the West have been going.

The US and the West are enduring a delicate dilemma. At issue is whether we should firmly express our self interest and publicly outline a transition strategy at the expense of Mubarak and the military, or to refrain from anything but the most innocuous proclamations and, like a free market economy, let the social and political forces at work manifest themselves. We are under heavy pressure to both intervene and stay aloof and such pressure comes with a myriad of instructions on how we should behave in our selected strategy.

The Saudis want us to refrain from embarrassing Mubarak. The Muslim Brotherhood wants us to keep entirely out of the situation. Israel seeks a stable and pro-Israeli government not unlike what Mubarak and Sadat had practiced in the past and would like the US to do everything in its power to ensure that happening. Dick Cheney and what remains of the Neo Cons want to maintain Mubarak in power and continue to feed the Egyptian military. Meanwhile, back at the White House, O is praying for world peace and tranquility which, in retrospect, is most certainly his studied approach to the unfolding situation. While O has not thrown Mubarak under the bus, he has issued a few nudges in that direction.

I continue to believe that Mubarak will go and strongly support the Saudi appeal to assist him in doing so without embarrassment. Saudi and Egypt together are the heart and head of Islam respectively and, as the two foremost Sunni Muslim nations, they need each other to maintain dominance in the Arab and indeed the Muslim world. To be sure, the transition away from Mubarak and his strong arm style of government will take time whether he oversees the transition or not. Moreover, the taste of power experienced by the protesters will linger and expand not only in Egypt, but in other Middle Eastern and quite possibly African and Asian countries as well. The urban youth of Egypt who rebelled against the military regime have had an addictive experience and are unlikely to be satisfied with going home satisfied that there is nothing more to do.

This means that in response, the Egyptian government must either redouble its policy of suppression or mete out a few concessions to the people. The trick is to follow both responses with some measures for controlling the more outspoken protesters and to relax the rules just enough to satisfy public demands, but not enough to empower the people. Perhaps a new head of state will suffice; one who promises reform and who is not heavily tainted with the Mubarak brand of governance. I doubt that al Baradei will fit this bill and I suspect he knows it. He talks as if he wants the military regime to relinquish its dictatorial powers in favor of a civilian government. If that were to occur, which is highly unlikely, the result would be less of a civilian government and more of a Muslim Brotherhood led regime.

The role of the Muslim Brotherhood cannot be neglected. They are not only strong in number and influence, but capable of bringing in outside assistance in the form of moral support, political leverage, money and weapons. The price they would pay for this would be heavy indeed, but like most Muslims I have met, the price would be accepted in the name of Allah.

In conclusion, I suggest we talk softly and carry a big stick; i.e. pray for peace and tranquility and quietly put our heavy allies together to form, together with the Egyptian government, a solution with as limited consequential damages as possible. The heavy allies include Israel, the UK and Saudi Arabia for a start. A major concern should be interest groups seeking to take advantage of the crisis.