Arab spring.....or winter?

Now that the euphoria of the Arab Spring is waning, the realities that we should have recognized from the start are beginning to materialize, the most significant of which is the prospect that we have created a monster. Dr Frankenstein has been outdone by what the new world order must contend with in the Middle East. The USA has long been criticized for supporting and subsidizing dictators. Bush the younger changed this perception with the extremely clumsy ouster of Saddam Hussein. This act was followed by O's heavy political, economic and military support for the demise of Ghadaffi and Mubarak.

Having topped the devils we know, new demons are waiting in the wings with wider public support, enhanced religious fanaticism and hostility toward the West. Following my theory that the Arabs will remain friendly until we stop feeding them, our time is limited. This is because the spawn of the Arab Spring is highly unlikely to be palatable to the West.

It will expose Israel to the unchecked ill-will of the Arab masses. It will reinforce the spread of Islam and with it radical Islam. It may well end up supporting Turkey's bid for soft domination in the Middle East which may not be all that bad provided Turkey harbors no ill will toward the West for not allowing EU membership. Of course, the opposite is true and Turkey is already planning its revenge, threatening to freeze relations with the EU should Cyprus be granted its rotation for the EU presidency.

We in the West will be forced to check the new Arab leaders and this will involve penalties for non-compliance with our wishes. As they are largely under 30 years of age and possess the emotional mentality of adolescents, they will rebel rather than compromise. The implications of this scenario are horrifying and even though they may not come to pass, the threat is real and as such it challenges the capacity of Western statesmen to employ their most profound diplomacy.

Sadly, the idea of statesmen has been replaced with politicians. I cannot think of a single Western leader capable of handling the situation. Moreover, the American public is becoming fed up with concessions to the Middle East. This spells volatility among the governing and the governed. The Israel lobby in Washington must be very hard at work swaying legislative opinion back toward Israel.