Saturday, October 22, 2011

After Gadaffi.......what?


You must see Peter Oborne's article in the DT on Ghadaffi's demise. It brings the post-Ghadaffi situation into focus and perspective.

My take at the moment is that Libya will not be settled until the tribes are isolated from one another which of course means dividing country into two or three smaller and independent nations. I know this idea is popular among Americans as we have divided Viet Nam and Korea and probably should have divided Iraq by at least separating the Kurds.

Peter's insights offer little alternative than independence for the major Bedouin tribes. He also mentioned Berber people in Libya's western mountains. I was unaware of their presence in Libya. It explains why one of the revolutionaries featured recently on tv here had a Berber name.

I just cannot see another solution and I have no hope at all that the forces of democracy will iron out the enmities, jealousy and distrust that prevails between the tribes.

Your William Hague is in Tripoli now; brave lad. His meetings with Mustafa Jalil are making history as I write. I doubt that dividing Libya is on the agenda, but Jalil and his National Transitional Council will need massive doses of help and experience and good luck before the tribal differences can be resolved.

There is also the big question of disarming the revolutionaries. Peter noted that Kalishnikov rifles are so plentiful that their street cost is only $800, down from $4,000.

This cannot be right. When I worked in Yemen about 12 years ago, they were selling for $50 each. Also, I can buy a state of the art assault rifle here in Texas for about $400 and less technical models for half that price.

Libya must be swimming in money if they can get $800 for an AK 47.

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