I have been trying to figure out just what
the hell is going on in Spain. Greece is a side-show. It only has a midget
economy, and everybody knows that, after years of living high on the hog at
others’ expense, the game is up. Nemesis beckons.
Spain is different – but in some ways the
same.
It is different in size. It has a large
industrial economy. And it has even larger debts.
It arrived at the present impasse because,
like Ireland, it embarked on a madcap building boom off the back of cheap
money. Unlike Ireland, it helped destroy its expat market through corruption
and dispossessions without compensation. Like Greece, it had a bloated public
sector, excessively generous pension benefits and early retirement, and a ‘jobs
for life’ regime that made it almost impossible to get rid of workers.
But its sovereign debt, although high, was at
least not critical. Its GDP/ debt ratio is better than Britain’s. Its problem
was with its regional banks, not the big beasts like Santander, but the
relative tiddlers, the equivalent of the German landesbanken (which are also in
trouble; we don’t hear much about them. But we will).
So the question is: why not let them fail?
They would soon have been snapped up by predators.
Instead, Spain goes cap-in-hand to Brussels
and gets a €100 bn bail-out without, as far as we know, any of the draconian
conditions applied against Ireland.
The money is not being paid to the affected
banks, but to the Spanish Treasury. This all becomes sovereign preferred debt
which pushes Spain into the danger level. Rates have hit 7% which is
unsustainable. The Treasury than allocates the dosh to the banks which then buy
Government bonds. Round and round it goes.
And where is the asset backing?
At which point all becomes clear.
There
is no money. It’s all funny money.
It’s the world’s
biggest Ponzi scheme.
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