Reshuffle kerfuffle and Boris Island.........

So that was the reshuffle that was.

 

IDS refused to move to Justice (how’s that for the smack of firm government?). Warsi was kept on the payroll as the token Asian/Muslim/woman, and the rest was musical chairs, Westminster-style.

 

And then there was the extraordinary decision not only to keep Hunt but to give him a bigger job. This is the man best known for the Murdoch take-over farce, for trying to cancel the NHS tribute at the Olympics opening, who was in charge of Olympics security, and who has a bit of form for expenses hanky-panky, tax-avoidance, and nepotism.

 

What was Dave thinking? Well, my take is that it was not because Hunt will be a success but because he will fail. Health is the graveyard of political careers, so Dave can shaft him, smiling the while. Very Machiavellian, Dave.

 

Of course, if Dave had reshuffled himself in favour of David Davis that would have been really great news. Still, cometh the hour……

 

The overall winner was not even in Parliament.

 

It was the ever-irrepressible Boffo Johnson.

 

The government has now, to all intents and purposes,  dumped its manifesto promise on the LHR third runway, and that puts Boris Island firmly back on the menu. The Tory Party Chairman, one Shapps (who he?) has said that ‘a third runway will not be built within the term of this Parliament’,  i.e. before 2015. How’s that for weasel words? If they gave the go-ahead today they couldn’t even start building ‘within the life of this Parliament’.

 

So what are the issues?

 

Those of us who use that benighted airport regularly know that it is bursting at the seams. It is running on about 98% capacity, and the smallest hitch, like a snowfall, can cause delay and chaos. Something must be done, but what?

 

If LHR is to remain as London’s #1 airport it must have that third runway (but we also have Gatwick and Stansted, both of which could be expanded more quickly and more cheaply but the big boys don’t want to go there). London is in imminent danger of losing its leading role as an international hub.

 

The downside is location.

 

It is in a densely populated urban area, which causes huge traffic, environmental, and social problems. A third runway would mean the demolition of a lot of housing and other buildings with all the attendant expense, technical problems and public protest on a major scale. And the Tory party is split on the issue anyway.

 

The SW prevailing winds mean that most landing approaches are over central London. Increased traffic from a third runway would undoubtedly increase pollution and noise nuisance. But much more important is the security aspect. A successful terrorist attack on a landing aircraft would cause slaughter on the ground on an horrendous scale. There is particular vulnerability because of the ease with which a missile could be concealed along several miles of flight-path.

 

So what are the merits of Boris Island?

 

Most landing approaches would be over the sea, eliminating many of LHR’s disadvantages. Take-off would be over land  far less urbanised than central London. Noise and carbon pollution would be minimal.

 

It would be very accessible. The approaches by land would be from both the Essex and Kent sides. There are good road connections. Rail services from both north and south could be extended to the new airport terminals. Southend and Manston airports could become satellite feeders. Southend in particular would be only minutes away, and will soon have its own dedicated railway station.

 

It would provide huge economic stimulus to a somewhat neglected corner of SE England (a side benefit would be that it would kill off once and for all the absurdly massive wind farm planned for the Thames Estuary, as turbines interfere with the surveillance approach radar – something the Greens like to keep quiet about).

 

The downside?

 

The most obvious one is the SS Montgomery. This is the wreck of a ship carrying a large cargo of explosives during WW2, including block-buster bombs and other noisy things. It lies more or less in the middle of the estuary. It is said that the cargo is very unstable due to degrading during its long submersion. If it blew up it would probably takeout most of Southend sea-front and do £20 million-worth of improvements. I have flown over it many times on the approach to Southend Airport and thought to myself that if it goes up I will break the altitude record for light aircraft.

 

Then there is the time-factor.

 

After going through Parliamentary inquiries,  planning procedures, environmental impact studies and all the rest of the bureaucratic delaying mechanisms years will have passed before the first sod is turned. Shall we say 30 years before the first flight? Or three if we sub-contract it to the Chinese.

 

Whatever the outcome, the row has put Boris where he loves to belong – on the front pages. Another step on the road to No. 10.