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Come Wednesday evening,
the much anticipated O and M debate will be aired. The tone and demeanor of
that debate will offer more solid evidence of who is going to win the
Presidential nomination than anything else I can think of. Mind you, O has taken
a small but indicative lead and M needs a blockbuster performance on Wednesday
and during the subsequent two debates if he wants to capture the presidential
office.
As a campaigner, M has
not lived up to expectations. He comes across as stiff and cold in spite of
all his baby kissing, open necked shirts, blue jeans and efforts to look human.
More important, he has committed gaff after gaff resulting in his being mainly
on the defense when given or purchasing air time.
In my view, however, his
largest problem is the fault of the Republican Party. Never have I seen such a
devastating split in party philosophy than now between the classic and
conservative Republicans. The latter include the Tea Party disciples and the
Libertarians. The brunt of right wing talk radio is solidly aligned with the
conservative faction of the Republican Party. As a result, an audience of
millions of TV and radio listeners are constantly exposed to the
social and fiscal views of some radical but persuasive media personalities.
These
personalities seriously influence if not set Republican standards and values.
The role of these ultra right principles was highly visible during the primary
elections for a Republican standard bearer. In order to achieve prominence in
the primaries, M was compelled to preach a much more conservative and right
wing party line than he espoused as a private citizen and as Governor of
Massachusetts. This shift in his stand on several major issues gave M the
reputation of a 'flip-flopper'. The Democrats have picked up this aspect of M's
dilemma and are proceeding to label him as indecisive, shifty and
opportunistic.
M aids in sustaining
these labels because in order to capture the number of public votes needed to
win the presidential election, he has to move back to the political center.
Such a move is forced by the dynamics of the prevailing Republic Party split. M
could not have done anything different and by following the only path open to
him, he has painted himself into a corner. The paint will not dry before the
election. The Democrats will see to that.
To make matters worse,
the more M moves toward the center of mainstream American political thinking,
the more he alienates the right wing of his political base. Hence, what he
picks up on one hand he loses on the other.
M's only hope is to go
for broke in the debates by making an appeal to the public based upon his own
personal convictions on social and fiscal issues. It must be the force of his
personality that grabs the people, not his stand on the issues. To be sure,
such a feat is almost impossible given M's flip-flopping and generally cold
demeanor. In the process, M has to convince the millions of viewers that O has
not only failed to keep his promises, but that he is a phony, a pretender and
at heart a person only interested in achieving power through exploiting
poverty, racial and environmental issues associated with the political left.
The public exposure of
Republican Party structural weaknesses may play out by generating a major
change in the two party system that America has so long enjoyed. Speculation is
rising that a third party will be initiated and will be called either the
Conservative or Libertarian party. Never mind that this party appeals only
to a relatively small percentage of the population. It may still come
about and could only gain prominence if it stuck to fiscal issues such as a
balanced budget, small government, free market and no public debt.
If the third party also
flogs its social issues it will remain a minority. The far right is
characterized as espousing principles related to pro-life, basic family values
and no single sex marriage.These social values are not monopolized by the
political right and are best left up to the individual rather than a particular
party. They are much too controversial to win an election.
I look forward to the
debate.
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