Gamblin' Dave.............

Let us draw a discreet veil over the ludicrous, pointless, and unnecessary debate on ‘gay’ marriage, and reflect upon Dave’s two recent triumphs, one being the EU budget, the other his speech committing the Government to a referendum on our future in the EU.

 

Forcing a budget cut against all the odds was more than just a financial victory. The reduction itself will only amount to a bit less than 1%, the budget representing 1% of GNI. But it has never happened in the whole history of the EU, and now a precedent has been set. The empty suits in Brussels must be beside themselves with fury and frustration. The European Parliament has threatened to block the deal. Should they try, they will rapidly find out what will happen when they try to defy the will of the elected leaders  of the national Governments.

 

My guess is that they will compromise on a budgetary review in 3 years’ time.

 

Brussels may have to get used to a new word – austerity.

 

An interesting comment from a Polish newspaper:

 

"The Union will head towards the free trade zone dreamed of by the British and supported by the Germans rather than the 'solidarity-driven federal structure' wanted by Paris...There is no doubt that, by imposing cuts, Germany has shown its economic strength. Berlin's dictate will be even harsher, while abundant transfers from Brussels may turn out to be only a nice memory if the Franco-Spanish-Italian-Polish club fails to improve its competitiveness."

 

But there is perhaps a greater significance.

 

The deal was forced through by UK and Germany. Angela was Dave’s trump card. It was backed by the ‘north’, leaving France and the Club Med out in the cold.

 

Does this mean the end of the alliance between Germany and France that has been the driving force in the EU since the beginning?

 

Perhaps that is being over-optimistic, but to quote Winston, ‘this is not the end; it is not the beginning of the end. But it is the end of the beginning!’

 

PMQs was an almost jovial occasion, instead of the usual bear-garden. Both Labour and the Libdems ‘welcomed’ the deal, and the PM even got praise from his most surly anti-EU backbenchers.

 

Now for that ‘referendum’ speech.

 

The media seemed united in the view that it was a masterly piece of oratory; that it was an irrevocable promise to hand over the issue to ‘the people of England who haven’t spoken yet”.

 

And that it is the biggest gamble since Dave enticed the Libdems into a coalition.

 

He is gambling that this will silence the Eurosceptics who are a majority in the Tory party inside and outside Parliament, that it will neutralise the electoral threat from UKIP, and that he can persuade the other EU members to give him sufficient of what he wants to secure an ‘in’ vote.

 

The joker in the pack is the plan for a Free Trade Agreement between the EU and the US.

 

The time-line of 2 years is politically highly significant.

 

For Obama,  the aim is to wrap it up while he still has a Congressional majority. For Dave, it will be in the bag before the referendum.

 

The gamble here is that the deal will underscore the dangers of not being part of the largest free-trade zone in history; of being the small boy with his nose pressed against ice-cream parlour  window.

 

My guess is that it will tip the balance, especially if Dave comes up with major concessions on such issues as EU employment law, security, justice, and the incessant meddling that comes from Brussels almost daily.

 

And it is not beyond possibility that he will gather support from other EU members, unless we believe that we are the only country in Europe to despise the unelected bureaucracy that really rules in Europe.

 

Dave could be the boy who pulls his  finger out of the dyke.