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When
the scramble out of Africa started in around 1960, we old colonials reckoned
the ‘wind of change’ would blow everything away.
How
right we were. Very quickly we were dishing out blankets and food to the
thousands of Belgians who legged it over the Congo border from a war that has never ended. The
ensuing decades have seen the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse galloping in,
spreading civil war, invasions, famine, disease and millions of deaths over
vast swathes of the continent.
It
has taken 50 years to begin to see a glimmer of hope.
Africans
are not fighting Africans on the earlier scale. The Congo remains in its usual
state of violence, together with parts of the Sahel and much of Somalia,
but the seemingly endless conflicts from
the 1960’s to the 1990’s hopefully are past. This is partly due to the end of
the cold war and the supply of arms by Russia and the US to buy influence with
whichever dictator was in power, and partly due to simple war-weariness. And
perhaps because there are fewer people left to kill.
Only
nine countries have out-and-out authoritarian regimes. The others are either
democracies or getting there. And most
of the Big Men have gone.
Government
competence has improved markedly, so perhaps the efforts of we development
consultants over many years have not been entirely in vain. The public services
generally are better administered by better educated civil servants. Admittedly
they continue to have their hands in the till, but the kleptocrats generally
are fewer in number, and they no longer steal the whole Treasury. In Nigeria
they still help themselves to between $4 and 8 billion every year, but they are
experts. It is estimated that $380 billion has gone walkabout from there since
independence.
And
there have been real improvements in civil society.
Health
has improved. Child mortality is still unacceptably high, but is falling quite
rapidly. Malaria is down 30%, and AIDS by a remarkable 75%. Even South Africa
appears to have the infection under control, despite the legacy of Mbeki.
Secondary
school attendance increased by nearly 50% in 8 years. Income has increased by
30% in a decade. Internet access is available to 60% of households, and mobile
phone penetration is a staggering 80%. In South Africa, a mobile is called ‘the
Gauteng earing’ because every kid seems to have one as a permanent attachment
to the ear.
One
of the important developments has been the growth of banking via mobile for
people who have never before been able to open a bank account due to remoteness
from a bank, or simply by being of no interest to conventional banks
Economically,
Africa is the fastest growing continent, and 15 African countries are in the
top 50 growth economies (EU had negative growth in 2012).
The
wealthiest countries by GDPpp are Equatorial Guinea ($36,000), Seychelles
($28,000), Gabon ($16,000), Mauritius ($15,000), Botswana ($13,000), and South
Africa ($10,000), which puts them on a par with some Eastern European
countries. Three-quarters of African countries are ranked as ‘middle income’.
(EU = $32,000).
Foreign
investment in Africa has increased from $15 billion to $46 billion in 10 years
(the downside to this being capital flight to tax havens equal to the whole of
foreign aid, according to some authorities). Exports rose from $80 billion to
$450 billion in the same period, during which exports to China alone increased
from $11 billion to $166 billion.
Oil
has been discovered in commercial quantities in Sudan, Uganda, and Kenya; and
gas in Tanzania.
An
emerging problem is excessive reliance on commodities, such as Zambian copper
which has boomed but is subject to quite violent market fluctuations. Botswana,
recognising that the diamonds may run out in 20 years or less, has persuaded De
Beers to shift its sorting operations from London to Gaborone. And the ‘curse
of oil’ may make it a mixed blessing.
There
is still a long way to go, but the future looks more promising
It
has all been a long time a’coming!
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