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Let
us now consider Professor Sir John Beddington, the former Chief Scientific
Advisor.
His
parting shot was that even if we achieve our present carbon reduction targets
we will be stuck with climate change for the next 25 years.
He
says that there will also be another 1 billion people on the planet and that we
will be facing a crisis in energy security, food and water. So let’s see if
this stands up to a bit of common sense.
First,
population.
The
trouble with population predictions is that people are unpredictable. They
change their habits and lifestyle as they become more affluent; they have fewer
children both because improving medical care avoids the breeding of large
families in case of losses, but more importantly because they no longer need
large families as their pensions. More than 200 million people have been lifted
out of poverty in the past decade. A known consequence of this is that the
fertility rate is falling in many countries, sometimes dramatically. For
example, in Thailand the fertility rate has fallen from around 9 to less than
the replacement rate of 2.2. With the exception of Britain and the US, which
are on the cusp, almost all western countries are experiencing negative
replacement rates.
Instead
we will be facing a quite different problem, that of ageing populations with a
declining workforce.
The
rate of population growth is slowing. It is estimated to peak at about 9
billion by 2075 from the present 7 billion and then slowly decline. But this does
not take into account rapid changes in the fertility rate in poor countries
where it is currently very high.
And
so to food.
The
most compelling aspect of the world food situation is ‘waste’.
It
is estimated that almost 50% of food production is lost due to poor harvesting techniques,
spoilage in transit, and improvident shoppers; a peep in a supermarket skip
comes as something of a shock when one sees the amount of food that is thrown away.
The idiocy of ‘ sell by’ and ‘best before’ dates is a major factor in unnecessary
food waste. And of course there is simple gluttony.
Most
of the cultivatable land on the planet is either not cultivated at all or
cultivated badly. Africa is a case in point. In much of the continent, peasant
farmers have not progressed even as far as the ox-plough. There is insufficient
investment due mainly to lack of security of land title. The decline in farming
by Europeans in parts of Africa has reduced production in some areas; for
example, Rhodesia was once a major exporter of maize and the highest quality
beef. Zimbabwe is not. South African food production is under threat because of
the murder of white farmers – 3000 according to some estimates.
Elsewhere
there is over-production, of rice in Thailand where the government has an
intervention mechanism to stop prices tanking, sugar in tropical countries
which is scarcely competitive on world markets due to unfair competition from
the EU which adds to surplus production by subsidising sugar beet, and elsewhere.
Large areas of farmland are taken out of production under EU set-aside arrangements
and we have the ultimate absurdity of farmers being paid not to farm.
And,
of course, we have food – corn and sugar especially – being converted into biofuels,
notwithstanding that there is negative carbon benefit because of the power
needed in the conversion process or that this also harms beef production.
Far
from there being a future famine threat, a combination of better agriculture
and land use should provide more than sufficient food for future populations.
Now
for energy.
Proven
reserves of fossil fuels are known to be in excess of future demand. This does
not take into account nuclear power or the greatest unexploited resource, the
sea. Neither does it recognise the fact that the world reserves of coal are
vast. I don’t think the lights will be going out any time soon, despite endless
claptrap from the green lobbies.
So
instead of Private Frazier (we’re doomed) it should be Corporal Jones (don’t
panic)!
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