Interesting theory,
yours, about the whole Middle East gambit boiling down to a civil war within
Islam which has been going on for more that 50 years. How about for more
than 1500 years? I am rereading a book by Richard Fletcher entitled Moorish Spain which
was written in 1992. Fletcher speaks about troubles between the Arab rulers of Spain
who as Sunnis endured various problems from the Shiite Arabs known as Fatimids
and living in Baghdad. This was in the ninth century, but the schism arising from the Shiite breakaway dated back to the seventh
century.
What we are today
witnessing is perhaps a cyclical manifestation of this schism. I find it a bit
difficult to characterize these two main branches of Islam. One might argue
that the Sunnis are better represented in the strictly Arab countries, but
this is not a hard rule as there are some glaring exceptions, Iraq for
example which is largely Shiite.
Nor can I claim
that one branch is more fundamentalist than the other. It may be difficult to
be more fundamentalist than the Shiite Ayatollahs in Iran, for example, but the
Sunni Wahabi's come as close as anyone. Also, al- Qaeda with all its ultra-orthodox manifestations of
Islam was Sunni inspired and led.
During my 15 years in
Indonesia, all of the Muslims I queried did not recognize either the Sunni or
Shiite terms. Only recently have I discovered the presence of a very small
group of Indonesians who have declared themselves as Shiites.
These anecdotal
observations lead me to opine that membership in one of the main branches of
Islam or the other is in itself insufficient cause for civil war. One important
consideration that I had learned and that was confirmed by Fletcher is that
Arab Muslims consider themselves on a higher plane than non-Arab Muslims
regardless of nationality.
The Moors of the
Maghreb, for example, were looked down upon as undisciplined cannon fodder
during the invasion and occupation of Spain even though they were converted
under the Sunni Arabs. This observation came manifestly to light when the
ruling Arabs in Andalucia meted out the choice conquered lands to their Arab
brethren while the Moors got the hindmost. Such descrimination seriously pissed
off the Moors.
Relations between Saudi
Arabs and Egyptians are even worse.
The better educated Egyptians
are often employed in Saudi Arabia, but with some reservations as they are very
much disliked. The Egyptians tend to lord it over the
Saudis which exacerbates relations considerably. Hence, the Saudi
Arabs have a harder time pulling rank on Egyptians than they do
on citizens of most other Muslim countries.
Moreover, Egypt is
clearly the most scholarly country in the Muslim world when it comes to Koranic
study and interpretation. This status annoys the Saudis who can only
revert to their claim on the holy cities of Mecca and Medina.
Clearly, the basis for
unity does not exist among the Islamic peoples of the world. I
would therefore augment your civil war theory with emphatic
tribal and ethnic differences between and within Muslim countries of the
Middle East and elsewhere.
I would also add that
the burgeoning population of Middle Eastern youth and their attendant
rising social, economic and political expectations contribute substantially to
current discontent given that these expectations have not, and are not likely
to be met within the visible future.
Perhaps we should expand
our thinking to the non-Muslim dominated world as well. I recently heard that
should the new Prince of Cambridge have to be named according to the currently
most popular name in England, it would be Mohammed.
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