Old Haymaker's Almanac.......

Another New Year; a time for reflection and prediction.

 

For the only time in centuries the Western world is at peace. The first 55 years of my life were lived during war-time or under the threat of nuclear incineration. Britain has been involved in four major wars since WW2, and has seen action in more than thirty theatres, plus the long attrition of the IRA campaign.

 

Now we are almost out of Afghanistan, the longest continuous war that we have fought in modern history and the most reckless, pointless and unwinnable ever. Deaths from war and terrorism have halved since the 1990s.

 

Globalisation has transformed economies and lifted an estimated 200,000,000 out of poverty. The world economy will grow 60% faster than it did 20 years ago

 

Living standards, health-care, and longevity have never been higher. More than 30% of babies born this year will live to be 100. Crime in the UK is  down, and alcohol and drugs use has fallen dramatically amongst the younger generation.

 

The number of graduates has risen 400% for males and 700%for women in the last 40 years.

 

So where are we going?

 

In the short term, the US will have a very strong economic recovery, ignoring Barack ‘do nothing’ Obama. It will be achieved by the sheer will of the American people despite the best endeavours of the President and Congress to foul the footpath.

 

The IT revolution, breathtaking though its pace has been in the last couple of decades, has yet to find full momentum. Computer power doubles about every 18 months and costs halve. You ‘ain’t seen nothing yet!

 

The British economy will also prosper, unlike the Eurozone which, at least in the shortish term, will continue to be shackled to an unworkable system that fails to achieve the fiscal union that is vital to support monetary union. Brussels will continue to dither whilst Europe stagnates.

 

In the longer term, the EU will be transformed out of all recognition; Germany and Britain will  lead the northern countries in rolling back the frontiers of the European quasi-state, with limitations placed on the powers of Brussels and  the repatriation of largely national responsibilities. There will be a modest but welcome shift back to the original and true purpose of a Common Market.

 

A true visionary would propose a free trade area stretching to Vladivostok: the economic befits of drawing in Russia’s massive mineral resources would transform the whole of Europe. Of course, political visionaries are notably absent in these times.

 

And nearer home and closer in time, the governance of Britain will change whatever happens in the Scottish referendum. Scotland will get more devolved powers, including some taxation. The ultimate solution might be the ‘Crown Dependency’, model that gives independence on everything except foreign affairs and defence. The ‘West Lothian’ question cannot be answered by banning  Scottish MPs from voting on English-only issues, because that could leave a Government with a majority on some votes but not on others.

 

 

With Crown Dependency status there would be no Scottish MPs, without doubt its greatest attraction.

A very good, peaceful and prosperous New Year to you all!