After Brixit............what then?

Lord Lawson has caused a kerfuffle amongst the chattering classes by coming out unequivocally for a Brixit from theEU.

 

His views command respect. He was the UK’s best Chancellor, a formidable intellect, and a hugely experienced political figure.

 

He sets out with great clarity all the reasons why the EU is an abomination, and perhaps it is now a task for that other Nigel to fill in the exact detail of all the costs, financial and political, of belonging to this failing  edifice.

 

What Lawson does not give us is an assessment of the consequences of leaving. The pro-EU spinners are at it already with half-truths and untruths, their usual stock-in-trade.

 

For example, there was an ‘expert’ on Sky’s Randall positing that exit would be disastrous for our trade with Europe, that more than half our export trade is with the EU, and that we could expect import barriers to be raised against us.

 

Now, you don’t have to be a leading economist to see that this is nonsense.

 

A huge amount of exports to Europe are nothing of the kind. They are trans-shipments through European ports to their final destinations world-wide. Instead of 50% going to EU, the likely figure is not much more than 30%.

 

The UK has always run a balance-of-trade deficit. Is it remotely likely that European business would wish to put that at risk by imposing punitive tariffs? Two can play at that game. UKIP must embark on a vigorous campaign to set out the post-exit scenario, and neutralise pro-Europe propaganda.

 

A vital component of this must be to look at the broader picture. The world is evolving into free trade areas. ASEAN will soon become a free-trade area. The US is in current negotiations with the EU, Japan, and South America, and there’s the BRICS.

 

So where does the UK go? Part of Cameron’s promised negotiations should be to get a FTA with the EU if Brixit happens.

 

The US would almost certainly be a willing partner.

 

But we already have the structure in place for our own FTA. It is the Commonwealth. Africa is the great growth area of the second half of the century, and it would leap at the chance to export to Commonwealth countries duty-free. India is already an upcoming economic ‘tiger’. Australia has one of the world’s largest export-orientated economies.

 

In former times we had ‘Imperial Preference’. It may now be due for resurrection as the Commonwealth Common Market.

 

Welcome to the CCM!