Crimean crisis.........another voice.

Unsurprisingly the doomsayers are out in force over the Crimea crisis; even the normally sensible Janet Daley in the Telegraph is comparing the situation at Munich as the precursor to war. Another leading commentator reckons we are one step away from the Cuban missile crisis and two steps from war.

 

They say that it’s all Obama’s fault; that Putin’s aggressive stance is because Obama is pusillanimous, irresolute and weak.

 

But Putin’s previous adventure was when he launched a major invasion of Georgia. And who was POTUS at the time? Why, none other than George W ‘shock and awe’ Bush.

 

It might be helpful to understand the situation from Putin’s standpoint.

 

He says that a democratically-elected government, which polled 1 million votes in the Crimea was overthrown undemocratically, and he is correct. The fact that the government was a criminal kleptocracy that stole everything that wasn’t nailed down and much of what was does not alter that fact.

 

He implies that the new regime, which downgraded the Russian language as one of its first moves,  is hostile to the Russian-speakers in the Crimea. So what’s wrong with a referendum? Nothing (provided it is under international supervision); after all, it’s good enough for Scotland.

 

He has seen the Russian Empire disintegrate not only with the loss of the modern European and Central Asian countries but also parts of the ancient Motherland. The Russian Federation is a shadow of the USSR. The Central European countries – Poland, the Baltic states, Hungary etc. – have aligned themselves with the West and in most cases joined the EU.

 

Some have joined NATO. Small wonder if the Russians became increasingly perturbed at NATO creeping ever closer to its own borders. The potential flashpoint is the Polish/Ukrainian border. If NATO deploys there in force, expect Putin to send the150,000 troops, that have recently been carrying out manoeuvres, into the Ukraine. That will be the time to start worrying.

 

Let’s not delude ourselves. This crisis was not caused by Russia. It was brought on when the EU tried to detach the Ukraine from the Russian sphere of influence. The motives are unclear. The EU has no special interest in the Ukraine, and clearly there was neither appreciation of the likely Russian reaction not any contingency plan in the event of it all going tits-up. It was bluff, no more.

 

It would be the greatest of ironies if the EU, created to avoid war in Europe, became the cause of another big one.