Stirring up the EU.....The British/German axis

Things are stirring in the EU.

 

According to the FT and Open Europe, Dave is getting into cahoots with the Germans and Dutch to flesh out his ‘All change in  Europe’ manifesto. Most importantly, there is a hurry-up component; the Germans are saying that Europe must move on this immediately after the EU elections in May. This will suit Dave perfectly because he will be able to trail his plan in advance of the General Election next year and give him two years to sell it to the referendum – on the assumption that he is still in No 10, which looks increasingly likely, especially if Miliband keeps his job.

 

Getting the Germans on side is a formidable achievement for Cameron. It is now a ‘given’ that the EU must change by reforming its governance and sorting out the Eurozone tangle.

 

Germany accepts that there must be further moves towards achieving the single market especially in services, a tricky one for them, as there are many vested interests and protected professions in Germany. But it could be worth something approaching £300 bn. to the EU economies, especially to UK as the  largest service-sector economy by far. And it seems to be in favour of Dave’s position on the Eurozone, that non-members must not be discriminated against.

 

Treaty change is now definitely on the table, a score for Cameron, since received wisdom has had it that  that it was forbidden territory.

 

But Dave will find it tough going to get acceptance of all his keynote aims.                       

 

Removing the commitment to ‘ever closer’ union is perhaps the most difficult. This is enshrined in treaty and it is to be expected that the Brussels nomenklatura will fight any change tooth and nail. Needless to say, the French will give it a ‘non’, as ever.

 

One plan that should please even Farage is the ‘red card’, giving one-third of members blocking power on EU draft laws that they don’t like. This could require treaty change but the Dutch feel that it could be implemented by simple agreement between the members

 

Then there is another tricky one. Dave wants a ‘reverse flow’ of EU roles and to dump the ‘ever closer union’ cant. This piece of mischievous waffle is enshrined in treaties, and the prospects of getting agreement on this is pretty remote. But there is an alternative. Masterly inactivity, allowing it to fall into desuetude.

 

The ‘reverse flow’ would involve tackling regional policy and the repeal of damaging measures such as the Working Time Directive and the widely-abused European Arrest Warrant. The role of the ECJ is not mentioned.

 

Particularly attractive to the British and Germans, if not to dirigiste France, is Dave’s ambition to make a bonfire of business regulations. The problem here is where to start; nobody really knows how much EU regulation has been imposed on British law, except it is far too much. He is also pushing for the Free Trade Agreement with the US to be a priority.

 

And one proposal should appeal even to the French; reforming the Free Movement Directive and Social security regulations so that immigration from new members is controlled and state benefits are restricted and not exportable. Dave is in a strong position here because the admission of new members needs the unanimous vote of all members.

 

Which countries will join the UK/German/Dutch axis? Probably all of the North; the Club Med will ask ‘What’s in it for us?’, and the French will try to block every change, naturellement! The prospect of the EU’s second largest cash-cow might leave the EU altogether should have a considerable effect on some waverers.

 

It is too much to expect that all of Dave’s proposals will be accepted, but there’s a good chance that enough of them will get through to enable him to go before the referendum voters and say ‘This is my package; yes or no?’. ‘No’ would mean Brixit; whether the majority is prepared to take that leap in the dark we will find out in three years’ time.