Deja vu in the EU?

If you had said to a German in 1925 that within 10 years Germany would be ruled by an absurd Corporal, an Austrian house-painter with a funny moustache, he would have put it down to incomprehensible English humour or that you were deranged. But it tragically happened; Hitler was voted in as Chancellor and then as Fuhrer, and Germany was destroyed as a consequence.

 

Hitler came to power in circumstances that are eerily resonant.

 

The German economy was in tatters. The currency was worthless. The middle classes were ruined. People were starving.

 

Hitler’s game plan was to create a single market throughout Europe with a single currency and a single authority; die Neuordnung Europas.

 

He created the necessary hate figure by demonizing Jewry. This was essential in order to give the people a choate focus on people they could blame for all their troubles; people who were usurious money-lenders, greedy bankers, crooked merchants who systematically cheated the gentiles; people who should be exterminated throughout Europe, giving the ordinary German a reason for war.

 

Fast forward to the 21^st Century.

 

There is a single market, a single currency and a de facto single (unelected) authority. The whole Eurozone area is in an economic tailspin. There is massive unemployment particularly among the under-25 age group, a sure recipe for civil unrest if uncorrected. The Euro is a disaster that its backers refuse to recognise. It has enabled Germany to wax fat on cheap money at the expense of the other members. The only reasonably healthy European economies are those that are not in the Eurozone. The whole economic situation has a whiff of sulphur about it. When every other continent is progressing economically the EU stagnates. There is a de facto 4^th Reich with Germany being forced reluctantly into a position of dominance within the EU.

 

Then there is the racial-religious nexus.

 

Right across the EU there is rising anger and concern about increasing numbers of adherents to a religion that is spreading jihad throughout large tracts of the planet; increasingly militant in staging violent demonstrations and trashing shops that stock Israeli products, refusing to integrate or even learn the language of their adopted  country. Some areas, such as Antwerp are rapidly becoming Islamised with a majority of the population.  The banlieus of Paris have become racial flashpoints. Ordinary people feel that the political elites pay excessive deference to Islamic sensitivities.

 

The present rumblings of discontent may soon become much louder.

 

Before the holocaust the Jewish population of Europe was 9 million which the Nazis reduced to 3 million. As is typical of their race, they were hard-working and loyal citizens, successful both in commerce and in the professions. And they regarded themselves as German, or French or Italian or whatever. These are not characteristics that automatically apply to the Muslim community that now numbers 44 million. And yet by a terrible irony we are also seeing a resurgence of anti-Semitism under the smokescreen of support for the right of Hamas to send rockets into Israel without retaliation

 

Right across Europe people are losing faith in both the effectiveness of democratic institutions and in the integrity of their leaders. Unchecked, this could lead to mischief. There is increasing dissatisfaction with government by an unelected bureaucracy in Brussels and the lack of democratic legitimacy. There is increasing disillusion with and dislike of the EU as an institution. It is even more unpopular in France, one of the original founders of the EU, than in the UK – which is quite saying  something!

 

This is not going to give rise to another Fuhrer. Today people would simply mock the rantings that so mesmerised the German people 80 years ago. But this does not eliminate the possibility of the rise of a Putin-like strongman in a susceptible country with little democratic tradition such as Italy or Greece, a quasi-Fascist kept in place by a wealthy and corrupt oligarchy, controlling the media, and confusing the people with Kremlinesque  lies. The enemy would be social media, and already we are seeing tentative steps to control the internet, Facebook etc. such as the recent ‘right to disappear’ decision of the ECHR. And we have seen a massive rise in repressive legislation and anti-libertarian politics.

 

But parliamentary democracy in the EU has shallow roots. Only the UK has had it continuously in modern times. None of the others have had democratic government for a continuous period of more than about 70 years. The Eastern European members have even less, around 25 years. It is vulnerable to demagogues and populists.

 

The only certainty in these uncertain times is that there will be massive changes in the way in which the world is organised.

                                                                                                                                                                                          

Fasten your seat belts. You’re in for a bumpy ride!