You must see Peter
Oborne's article in the DT on Ghadaffi's demise. It brings the post-Ghadaffi
situation into focus and perspective.
My take at the moment is that Libya will
not be settled until the tribes are isolated from one another which of course
means dividing country into two or three smaller and independent nations. I
know this idea is popular among Americans as we have divided Viet Nam and Korea
and probably should have divided Iraq by at least separating the Kurds.
Peter's
insights offer little alternative than independence for the major Bedouin
tribes. He also mentioned Berber people in Libya's western mountains. I was
unaware of their presence in Libya. It explains why one of the revolutionaries
featured recently on tv here had a Berber name.
I just cannot see another
solution and I have no hope at all that the forces of democracy will iron out
the enmities, jealousy and distrust that prevails between the tribes.
Your William Hague is in
Tripoli now; brave lad. His meetings with Mustafa Jalil are making history
as I write. I doubt that dividing Libya is on the agenda,
but Jalil and his National Transitional Council will need massive
doses of help and experience and good luck before the tribal differences can be
resolved.
There is also the big
question of disarming the revolutionaries. Peter noted that Kalishnikov rifles
are so plentiful that their street cost is only $800, down from $4,000.
This
cannot be right. When I worked in Yemen about 12 years ago, they were selling for
$50 each. Also, I can buy a state of the art assault rifle here in Texas for
about $400 and less technical models for half that price.
Libya must be
swimming in money if they can get $800 for an AK 47.
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