Sunday, March 18, 2012

So farewell, then, Newt...

Nobody is getting the calls right on the primary elections. Santorum's success in Mississippi and Alabama was supposed to have gone to Gingrich and Romney respectively.

Newt is pretty much out of the picture now, although he will be the last to admit it. His ego will not permit otherwise. Pity, strutting around losing state after state like the king with no clothes. The baggage he carries is far to heavy and he cannot shed it other than to ask forgiveness for his trespasses.

I should thing Newt would be better off praying to Rick Santorum who behaves as if he is holier than God. I doubt, however, that Rick would show any mercy. He, Rick, is adamant that Newt dutifully bow out of the race and thereby cede the vast majority of votes  Newt would get to Santorum. Odd, this also happens to be Newt's conviction. By splitting the ultra right wing conservative vote between them, Mitt benefits considerably.

The irony of all this is that the entire primary election is largely meaningless. For example, many states that caucus instead of having a public vote, retain the right to assign their state delegate votes to whomever they want and not necessarily the winning candidate. All three of the key players (Ron Paul is campaigning on behalf of his own obscure agenda) are desperately trying to win the conservative vote.

The only deep, dyed in the wool conservative among them is Rick Santorum. As God, he would be conservative, wouldn't he? The problem is, when it comes time for the national election against Obama, an extreme right wing conservative will not carry the vote. Not even close. So, what's the point?

The only candidate who can hope to defeat Obama is Romney. Mitt looks presidential, has a clean vice record, knows his economics and is a Washington outsider. The latter is considered an asset in this election as anyone tainted with the Washington brush is viewed as suspect, as in conspiratorial, dishonest, corrupt, greedy, phoney, and inclined to be liberal with the truth.

I personally doubt whether Mitt can defeat Obama given his tendency to put the public to sleep. There remains the Mormon factor which has only slightly surfaced, but could be used against Mitt should his opponents decide it is their last and only chance to win.

Still in all, he has to win the nomination first and with less than half the 1,100 and odd delegate votes needed, some believe no candidate will acquire enough votes. If not, then we will have a brokered election in which the powers that be in the Republican party meet to decide where to place their influence. The mechanics of a brokered convention lend themselves to all sorts of shenanigans, wheeling and dealing.

It is likely, however, Mitt would still be the winner as everyone knows, except Newt and God, that he has the best chance against Obama.

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